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GSM subscriber growth to halt, flatlining by mid-2011

GSM subscriber growth is slowly grinding to a halt. According to forecasts from ABI Research, growth is expected to flatline by mid-2011. Asia-Pacific makes up 45% of the global cellular market compared to 29% in 2000.

ABI Research has published some key findings on the subject of GSM and its growth patterns. An end to subscriber growth - and consequent flatlining - are the predictions. In addition, and despite prolific growth in Asia-Pacific subscriber numbers, emerging markets have experienced substantial problems due to the economic down-turn.

“There is still some mileage in EDGE subscriptions (28%) and GSM voice-only subscriptions (8%) but otherwise GPRS subs are shrinking,” comments Vice-President of Forecasting Jake Saunders,  “however, 3G and 3.5G subscriptions are ramping up as the “need for speed” encourages end-users to upgrade. At the end of 2009, there were 181 million HSxPA subscriptions. Overall, mobile broadband subscriptions grew to 271 million for a year-on-year growth rate of 43%.”

Global cellular subscription numbers surpassed 4.35 billion by the end of 2009, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4%. Cellular subscriptions slowed perceptibly in the first half of 2009 as emerging markets took the brunt of the economic slowdown. The rate of adoption slowed, and existing end-users reduced spending on cellular subscriptions. Cellular subscription adoption has since recovered in late 2009, resulting in global cellular penetration topping 66%.

Most industrialised countries pushed through the 100% penetration barrier by the end of the 1990s, with the help of prepaid subscription plans. “There is a very real prospect that within the next five to ten years, cellular subscription penetration will pass through 200% in a number of developed countries,” adds analyst Bhavya Khanna. “USB dongles, embedded modems in netbooks, laptops, tablets and consumer electronics will test the definition of “mobile cellular subscriber.” Operators will need to evolve to multiple devices per subscription to retain customers.”

The Asia-Pacific region accounts for a staggering 45% of the global cellular market compared to just 29% ten years ago. The next-largest market is Western Europe (13%) followed by North America (7.2%). In Asia-Pacific, cellular penetration has only reached 52.5% compared to 140% in Western Europe and 93% in North America . Cellular penetration will include 80% of the world’s population by early 2014.

ABI Research’s Wireless Subscriber Forecasts series of market data products – North and South America, Asia-Pacific, Western and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, andWorldwide – tracks key subscription trends by quarter by operator for over 120 markets. The database forms part of two ABI Research Services: The Mobile Consumer and Business Mobility.

* ABI Research provides in-depth analysis and quantitative forecasting of emerging trends in global connectivity. From offices in North America, Europe and Asia, ABI Research’s worldwide team of experts advises thousands of decision-makers through 28 research and advisory services.

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